Thursday, November 25, 2021

The Great Game. November 25, 2021 -- Main Subject: Ukraine

 

Большая игра. Выпуск от 25.11.2021

The Great Game. November 25, 2021

 



Summary: The general thought that Simes, Nikonov and their guests stressed was that Russia had no intention of invading Ukraine, and that politicians in the West and in Ukraine were seeking to create a false impression that such an invasion would take place, largely to support their own sagging popularity. So, they were stirring up crises. Bill Burns and Toria Nuland are mentioned in part two.


[Begin Part One] 


Nikonov observed in his usual tendentious fashion that people in the US were hoping for war, and provoking it.  Otherwise, why was the US carrying out nuclear exercises around Russia? Simes demurred slightly, noting that in the United States, mass media were talking more about the threat posed by Russian maneuvers on Ukraine’s border. Normally, such talk from the US came after there was an incident of some sort (he cited in an elliptical fashion the Soviet shootdown of KAL007 in 1983).

 

Pushkov said that there was a prior example – the Iraq war of 2003.  Saddam Hussein had done “absolutely nothing,” but the US accused him of planning attacks and possessing nuclear, biological and chemical weapons. In the UK parliament, people were talking about a chemical or biological attack that could come from Iraq.  But it was complete crap (polnoye vranye). We are being accused of concentrating forces on our own territory, the same as Saddam. The US mass media is not independent. It mainly expresses the opinion of the executive (Biden).  Biden’s popularity has plummeted, as has Kamala Harris’ (Pushkov indicated with some scorn that he didn’t exactly know what she did anyway). So, something has to be done in the foreign policy sphere to compensate. The US doesn’t like two powers: Russia and China. The US is trying to show its leadership over opposing Russia over Ukraine and China over Taiwan.

 

Chesnakov noted that Zelensky’s popularity was also sagging. Something had to be done to boost his rating.  There were reports that on December 1 a state of emergency would be declared. The new Ukrainian Minister of Defense Reznikov has visited the US and is pressing his counterpart to increase military aid, something that has support in Congress. Biden wins if he can create the impression that he has convinced Putin not to attack Ukraine.  This is a part of the Great Game.

Simes commented that neither Washington nor Moscow wanted or needed war, but he cited, with dark humor, Nicholas II’s statement that there would be no war with Japan because he did not want such a war. Simes then introduced Christian Whiton, who was a frequent commenter on Fox News, perhaps the only US news outlet that did not insist that Ukraine was a central interest of the United States.

Whiton responded in English. He said that most on the left and right had adopted a very severe line toward Russia. This was useful to Democrats, but more with regard to China than with Russia. Most Americans don’t want war with Russia. They think the main enemy is China. Neither party has a particularly good idea of how to deal with Russia diplomatically. The mass media has blown the Russia/Ukraine situation out of proportion.

 

[end of part one]


[begin part two]

 

Nikonov asked Yevgeniy Shevchenko whether there was anyone in Kyiv who could serve as a mediator in the current crisis. Shevchenko, whose sympathies are well-known, suggested – apparently in all seriousness -- that Viktor Medvedchuk would be ideal for the job, were he not of course under house arrest for treason. Shevchenko also modestly suggested that he could go to Donetsk (perhaps reprising the behavior in Belarus that got him kicked out of Zelenskiy’s party). The moderators looked a bit nonplussed.

Simes referred back to Putin’s speech to the MFA Collegium on November 18, when he said that Russia did not need a conflict with Ukraine, but that it had deployed forces in view of the crisis situation on the border of Ukraine and around Russia generally to show the West that the “Russian armored train” was in reserve, in case of need. He asked Chesnakov if this statement by Putin showed that talks were not very promising at this point and that the possibility of some kind of military conflict was real.

Chesnakov responded that, first of all, Putin was addressing diplomats, not soldiers, and he was urging them to point out to foreigners the “red lines” that could not be ignored. He was reacting to British naval incidents in the Black Sea and American air deployments around Russia. And he also had in mind current issues such as summit preparations, the Ukraine situation and Minsk II. Chesnakov stressed that in his view Russia had no need for war at this time, as it had many pressing problems to deal with.  But military action might be viewed in Kyiv as important and useful, not just in Donbass but in Crimea as well, and as Ukraine Defense Minister Reznikov said, they were preparing for provocations from the Russian side.

Nikonov quoted from “the most experienced diplomat” Bill Burns’ memoir “The Back Channel,” in which the current Director of the CIA described “not entirely accurately, but candidly” the events around the Georgia conflict in 2008. Burns noted that Saakashvili received different signals from the US, depending on whether he was speaking to the State Department, the Pentagon, or Vice President Cheney’s team [Nikonov is substantially correct. See p. 241 of “The Back Channel”]. He asked Pushkov whether we were not in a similar situation now, where some elements of the USG would try to push Zelenskiy into a conflict with Russia.

Pushkov replied that it’s clear that the Biden administration also has its moderate wing and its extreme wing. There is general agreement that the US must give support to Ukraine in its political battle with Russia, and some favor military support as well for activities on the borders, in Donbass or the Black Sea, and this view is gaining support. Of course, the American public doesn’t want war of any kind, but it will react to events and support – at first – whatever the elite decides to do, as happened in the case of Vietnam, Iraq and Syria. Meanwhile, the US is giving signals to Ukraine that if it starts something, the US will support it. That’s what these air exercises around Russia are all about. He didn’t think that America would send troops to Ukraine, but the US would certainly push Ukraine to do something.  Ukrainians, for them, are cannon fodder. Zelenskiy looks at Biden and Stoltenberg with ecstasy. He can hardly restrain himself from falling on his knees and licking their boots. He’s the kind of person who can be easily influenced and might do something out of stupidity. And there are people in the US who want to push Ukraine into war with Russia.

Simes replied that it was clear that the Biden administration did not want to send US troops to Ukraine and had not promised this, but it would do everything else to support Ukraine, including to supply arms. Simes was struck by how Putin was portrayed in such dark terms as an aggressor, but that there was still an assumption that he would sit by idly while Ukraine was being armed against Russia. He asked Whiton if there was in Washington an understanding of Russia’s red lines, not just on NATO membership, but on the US arming Ukraine.

Whiton replied that he didn’t think there was such a general understanding. Such an awareness was confined to the foreign policy establishment and people like Under Secretary Victoria Nuland, who during her time in the Obama administration dictated who could be in the Ukrainian government and who could not. Simes asked if the Biden administration knew that it should be very careful about this.  Whiton replied that they did not. The Summit of Democracies would likely result in new threats against Russia. Nikonov added that the UK had already said it would send troops to Ukraine, as had Canada (“even Sweden,” added Pushkov).

Nikonov then asked Shevchenko a foolish question, to which he gave a series of foolish answers: if Biden ordered Zelenskiy to go to war with Russia, would he do so? The sum and substance of Shevchenko’s rather confusing response was that Zelenskiy was incapable of carrying out such an order, and he was not popular with Ukrainians anyway. Once again, guests and hosts appeared a bit dubious.

Simes asked Pushkov whether he thought the recent statements by President Putin and Defense Minister Shoigu gave cause for optimism that a new dialogue with the West could be opened up.  Pushkov said he thought not – it would be more an exchange of accusations. In general, positions have hardened. The warnings over Russia’s recent destruction of the Tsirkon satellite showed this. The Americans simply aren’t listening. They talk of dialogue, but not in the most important areas for us. Instead, they rehearse a nuclear air attack on our borders (Pushkov seems really hung up about this). All I can say is that Russia will have to demonstrate what these red lines are through action.

Nikonov highlighted the recent meeting between Shoigu and the Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe [where the US “Global Thunder” strategic force exercise was discussed]. Wei stated “In the face of insane deterrence and pressure by the US, China and Russia are in solidarity together, like a great mountain.  Our friendship is unbreakable. Together we will stand against the hegemony of the US, and speak against the fake democratic regime of the US, fake multiculturalism, and new manifestations of the Cold War. Our mutual relations are better than an alliance.” [I gather from this outburst that Wei is not woke].

Nikonov concluded that neither the US nor NATO had the power to deter the Russia-China alliance, and so they were creating problems. Simes did not agree with Nikonov’s analysis. He cited his favorite President Richard Nixon, who once said that “In Washington, people will tell you what you want to hear.  I will tell you what you need to hear.” It’s important for Russians to know that no one wants war, even Zelenskiy. But everyone wants the adversary to make the first concession (“naïve people” interjected Nikonov). We will overcome this, but we have a difficult road ahead.

[end part two]


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Here is the complete program on YouTube:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYp13Hmrgk0

Summary: Украина пытается убедить США в том, что Россия собирается на нее напасть, и просит защиты. Готовы ли американцы воевать за Украину на самом деле и кто из американской администрации играет в опасную игру? Об этом расскажет известный ведущий канала Fox News Кристиан Уайтон — эксклюзивно в «Большой игре».

 

Ukraine is trying to convince the USA that Russia is intending to attack and is asking for help. Are the Americans really ready to fight for Ukraine, and who in the American administration is playing this dangerous game? Fox News host Christian Whiton discusses this question exclusively with “The Great Game.”

 

Гости студии:

Алексей Пушков, председатель комиссии СФ РФ по информационной политике;

Алексей Чеснаков, директор Центра политической конъюнктуры;

Кристиан Уайтон, старший советник Госдепартамента при администрации Джорджа Буша -мл. и Дональда Трампа;

Евгений Шевченко, внефракционный депутат Верховной рады Украины.

 

Hosts: Dmitriy Simes, Vyacheslav Nikonov

Guests: Aleksey Pushkov, Federation Council committee chairman

Aleksey Chesnakov, Director, Center for Current Policy

Christian Whiton, Senior State Department Adviser in the Trump and George W. Bush administrations. [note: Whiton is actually a Fellow at Dmitriy Simes’ Center for the National Interest. He does not appear to have much expertise in Russia/Ukraine questions]

Yevgeniy Shevchenko, Deputy, Ukrainian Rada (formerly part of the “Servant of the People” Party  

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