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The Great Game. November 25, 2021
Summary: The general thought that Simes, Nikonov and their guests stressed
was that Russia had no intention of invading Ukraine, and that politicians in
the West and in Ukraine were seeking to create a false impression that such an
invasion would take place, largely to support their own sagging popularity. So,
they were stirring up crises. Bill Burns and Toria Nuland are mentioned in part two.
[Begin Part One]
Nikonov observed in his usual tendentious fashion that people in
the US were hoping for war, and provoking it.
Otherwise, why was the US carrying out nuclear exercises around Russia?
Simes demurred slightly, noting that in the United States, mass media were
talking more about the threat posed by Russian maneuvers on Ukraine’s border. Normally,
such talk from the US came after there was an incident of some sort (he cited
in an elliptical fashion the Soviet shootdown of KAL007 in 1983).
Pushkov said that there was a prior example – the Iraq war of
2003. Saddam Hussein had done “absolutely
nothing,” but the US accused him of planning attacks and possessing nuclear,
biological and chemical weapons. In the UK parliament, people were talking about
a chemical or biological attack that could come from Iraq. But it was complete crap (polnoye vranye). We
are being accused of concentrating forces on our own territory, the same as Saddam.
The US mass media is not independent. It mainly expresses the opinion of the
executive (Biden). Biden’s popularity
has plummeted, as has Kamala Harris’ (Pushkov indicated with some scorn that he
didn’t exactly know what she did anyway). So, something has to be done in the
foreign policy sphere to compensate. The US doesn’t like two powers: Russia and
China. The US is trying to show its leadership over opposing Russia over
Ukraine and China over Taiwan.
Chesnakov noted that Zelensky’s popularity was also sagging. Something
had to be done to boost his rating.
There were reports that on December 1 a state of emergency would be
declared. The new Ukrainian Minister of Defense Reznikov has visited the US and
is pressing his counterpart to increase military aid, something that has
support in Congress. Biden wins if he can create the impression that he has
convinced Putin not to attack Ukraine.
This is a part of the Great Game.
Simes commented that neither Washington nor Moscow wanted or
needed war, but he cited, with dark humor, Nicholas II’s statement that there
would be no war with Japan because he did not want such a war. Simes then
introduced Christian Whiton, who was a frequent commenter on Fox News, perhaps the
only US news outlet that did not insist that Ukraine was a central interest of
the United States.
Whiton responded in English. He said that most on the left and right had adopted a very severe line toward Russia. This was useful to Democrats, but more with regard to China than with Russia. Most Americans don’t want war with Russia. They think the main enemy is China. Neither party has a particularly good idea of how to deal with Russia diplomatically. The mass media has blown the Russia/Ukraine situation out of proportion.
[end of part one]
[begin part two]
Nikonov asked Yevgeniy Shevchenko whether there was anyone in Kyiv
who could serve as a mediator in the current crisis. Shevchenko, whose
sympathies are well-known, suggested – apparently in all seriousness -- that Viktor
Medvedchuk would be ideal for the job, were he not of course under house arrest
for treason. Shevchenko also modestly suggested that he could go to Donetsk
(perhaps reprising the behavior in Belarus that got him kicked out of Zelenskiy’s
party). The moderators looked a bit nonplussed.
Simes referred back to Putin’s speech to the MFA Collegium on
November 18, when he said that Russia did not need a conflict with Ukraine, but
that it had deployed forces in view of the crisis situation on the border of
Ukraine and around Russia generally to show the West that the “Russian armored
train” was in reserve, in case of need. He asked Chesnakov if this statement by
Putin showed that talks were not very promising at this point and that the
possibility of some kind of military conflict was real.
Chesnakov responded that, first of all, Putin was addressing diplomats,
not soldiers, and he was urging them to point out to foreigners the “red lines”
that could not be ignored. He was reacting to British naval incidents in the Black
Sea and American air deployments around Russia. And he also had in mind current
issues such as summit preparations, the Ukraine situation and Minsk II.
Chesnakov stressed that in his view Russia had no need for war at this time, as
it had many pressing problems to deal with.
But military action might be viewed in Kyiv as important and useful, not
just in Donbass but in Crimea as well, and as Ukraine Defense Minister Reznikov
said, they were preparing for provocations from the Russian side.
Nikonov quoted from “the most experienced diplomat” Bill Burns’
memoir “The Back Channel,” in which the current Director of the CIA described “not
entirely accurately, but candidly” the events around the Georgia conflict in
2008. Burns noted that Saakashvili received different signals from the US,
depending on whether he was speaking to the State Department, the Pentagon, or
Vice President Cheney’s team [Nikonov is substantially correct. See p. 241 of “The
Back Channel”]. He asked Pushkov whether we were not in a similar situation
now, where some elements of the USG would try to push Zelenskiy into a conflict
with Russia.
Pushkov replied that it’s clear that the Biden administration also
has its moderate wing and its extreme wing. There is general agreement that the
US must give support to Ukraine in its political battle with Russia, and some
favor military support as well for activities on the borders, in Donbass or the
Black Sea, and this view is gaining support. Of course, the American public
doesn’t want war of any kind, but it will react to events and support – at first
– whatever the elite decides to do, as happened in the case of Vietnam, Iraq
and Syria. Meanwhile, the US is giving signals to Ukraine that if it starts
something, the US will support it. That’s what these air exercises around
Russia are all about. He didn’t think that America would send troops to
Ukraine, but the US would certainly push Ukraine to do something. Ukrainians, for them, are cannon fodder.
Zelenskiy looks at Biden and Stoltenberg with ecstasy. He can hardly restrain
himself from falling on his knees and licking their boots. He’s the kind of
person who can be easily influenced and might do something out of stupidity. And
there are people in the US who want to push Ukraine into war with Russia.
Simes replied that it was clear that the Biden administration did
not want to send US troops to Ukraine and had not promised this, but it would do
everything else to support Ukraine, including to supply arms. Simes was struck
by how Putin was portrayed in such dark terms as an aggressor, but that there
was still an assumption that he would sit by idly while Ukraine was being armed
against Russia. He asked Whiton if there was in Washington an understanding of
Russia’s red lines, not just on NATO membership, but on the US arming Ukraine.
Whiton replied that he didn’t think there was such a general
understanding. Such an awareness was confined to the foreign policy establishment
and people like Under Secretary Victoria Nuland, who during her time in the
Obama administration dictated who could be in the Ukrainian government and who
could not. Simes asked if the Biden administration knew that it should be very
careful about this. Whiton replied that
they did not. The Summit of Democracies would likely result in new threats
against Russia. Nikonov added that the UK had already said it would send troops
to Ukraine, as had Canada (“even Sweden,” added Pushkov).
Nikonov then asked Shevchenko a foolish question, to which he gave
a series of foolish answers: if Biden ordered Zelenskiy to go to war with Russia,
would he do so? The sum and substance of Shevchenko’s rather confusing response
was that Zelenskiy was incapable of carrying out such an order, and he was not
popular with Ukrainians anyway. Once again, guests and hosts appeared a bit dubious.
Simes asked Pushkov whether he thought the recent statements by
President Putin and Defense Minister Shoigu gave cause for optimism that a new
dialogue with the West could be opened up.
Pushkov said he thought not – it would be more an exchange of
accusations. In general, positions have hardened. The warnings over Russia’s
recent destruction of the Tsirkon satellite showed this. The Americans simply
aren’t listening. They talk of dialogue, but not in the most important areas
for us. Instead, they rehearse a nuclear air attack on our borders (Pushkov
seems really hung up about this). All I can say is that Russia will have to
demonstrate what these red lines are through action.
Nikonov highlighted the recent meeting between Shoigu and the Chinese
Defense Minister Wei Fenghe [where the US “Global Thunder” strategic force
exercise was discussed]. Wei stated “In the face of insane deterrence and
pressure by the US, China and Russia are in solidarity together, like a great
mountain. Our friendship is unbreakable.
Together we will stand against the hegemony of the US, and speak against the
fake democratic regime of the US, fake multiculturalism, and new manifestations
of the Cold War. Our mutual relations are better than an alliance.” [I gather
from this outburst that Wei is not woke].
Nikonov concluded that neither the US nor NATO had the power to
deter the Russia-China alliance, and so they were creating problems. Simes did
not agree with Nikonov’s analysis. He cited his favorite President Richard
Nixon, who once said that “In Washington, people will tell you what you want to
hear. I will tell you what you need to
hear.” It’s important for Russians to know that no one wants war, even
Zelenskiy. But everyone wants the adversary to make the first concession (“naïve
people” interjected Nikonov). We will overcome this, but we have a difficult
road ahead.
[end part two]
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Here is the complete program on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYp13Hmrgk0
Summary: Украина пытается убедить США в том, что
Россия собирается на нее напасть, и просит защиты. Готовы ли американцы воевать
за Украину на самом деле и кто из американской администрации играет в опасную
игру? Об этом расскажет известный ведущий канала Fox News Кристиан
Уайтон — эксклюзивно в «Большой игре».
Ukraine is trying to convince the USA that
Russia is intending to attack and is asking for help. Are the Americans really
ready to fight for Ukraine, and who in the American administration is playing
this dangerous game? Fox News host Christian Whiton discusses this question
exclusively with “The Great Game.”
Гости студии:
Алексей
Пушков, председатель комиссии СФ РФ по информационной политике;
Алексей
Чеснаков, директор Центра политической конъюнктуры;
Кристиан
Уайтон, старший советник Госдепартамента при администрации Джорджа Буша -мл. и
Дональда Трампа;
Евгений
Шевченко, внефракционный депутат Верховной рады Украины.
Hosts: Dmitriy Simes, Vyacheslav Nikonov
Guests: Aleksey Pushkov, Federation Council committee chairman
Aleksey Chesnakov, Director, Center for Current Policy
Christian Whiton, Senior State Department Adviser in the Trump and
George W. Bush administrations. [note: Whiton is actually a Fellow at Dmitriy
Simes’ Center for the National Interest. He does not appear to have much
expertise in Russia/Ukraine questions]
