Wednesday, June 16, 2021

"The Great Game" Special post-Summit edition: June 16, 2021

 

Summary: "Talks took place between Vladimir Putin and Joseph Biden in Geneva on June 16. First, there was a small group meeting, and then a large group meeting in which the delegations participated. What can be agreed upon when there is no trust? Or is there? Have the two sides stepped back from a dangerous point, or have tensions in relations only increased, as they did following the Putin-Trump meeting in 2018? The first results of the Summit are discussed on “The Great Game.”

Introductory Comment: The general tenor of the discussion among the main guests and moderators on "Bolshaya Igra" was much more optimistic than I had anticipated. This optimism was probably unjustified, but it shows the desire of the commentariat elite, which “The Great Game” represents, for better relations with the US, and their relief that things seemed to go well. Overall, the contrasts between the style of the Moscow pro-Putin media and Washiington pro-Biden media were almost a case of the "blind men and the elephant." Where Moscow media saw a victory for Putin (though not as great as that over Trump at Helsinki), and focused on the set-piece statements of the Putin press conference, but not the gotcha questions from the pro-Biden Washington media and Putin's whataboutism, the pro-Biden Washington media drew the opposite conclusions, hailing the Summit as a victory for Biden. Moscow saw Putin as gaining stature and status, while Washington saw Biden as delivering important messages to Putin for the first time. Both views are true in their own way, but it shows just how far apart the sides really are. End Comment.




Moderator Dmitri Simes began the program by stating that it was obvious that the Summit had achieved positive results, even though they were not particularly large. Federation Council Deputy Chairman Konstantin Kosachev agreed. On the eve of the meeting, there were many dark predictions. It is true that most of the meetings were taken up with an exchange of complaints, but there were also positive results: an agreement to return Ambassadors to their posts, and an agreement to begin a dialogue on strategic stability, as well as cybersecurity, and the Arctic. That was enough for him to conclude that the Summit was productive.

Co-moderator Vyacheslav Nikonov groused that the only source for Russians on the Summit was President Putin, since President Biden had not agreed to take questions from Russian reporters. Putin, did, however, give a positive evaluation of the talks (the big board then played a clip of the press conference in which Putin said there was no hostility and the meetings were constructive -- the Biden press conference had not yet begun).

Konstantin Remchukov, Editor, Nezavisimaya Gazeta, perhaps getting a little carried away, gave very high marks to the Geneva meeting. President Biden had characterized the meeting as between “two great powers,” going against the Obama administration’s evaluation that Russia was a great power only in terms of nuclear arms. Biden refused to demonize Putin, calling him a worthy opponent. Biden seemed to be talking about “peaceful coexistence,” rather than confrontation.

Nikonov noted Putin’s very important statement on strategic stability lauding Biden’s decision to extend New START II (SNV-III). Simes also stressed the importance of an agreement to talk about cybersecurity. Kosachev said that the return of Ambassadors to their posts was a hopeful sign. (the big board played Putin’s statement that MFA and State would meet to discuss problems on the “diplomatic track,” i.e., the current problems with diplomatic staffing). Kosachev noted specifically the problem of diplomatic ceilings and third-country personnel (a US concern) and the “arrest of properties (a Russian concern). (The big board then showed a video of the site where President Biden would soon give his press conference).

Nikonov then referred to the agreement to begin talks about cybersecurity issues, noting that Putin had pointed out that most cyberattacks occurred in the US, and that attacks originating from Russia were small in number (Comment: this is a willful misunderstanding of how cyber attacks work, and how foreigners use US servers to conceal their activities from US intelligence agencies). Putin also pointed out that there was much work to be done on cybersecurity, since Russian complaints had not been answered. Simes called the agreement to begin a dialogue on this issue as an achievement of Russian diplomacy, but conceded that while beginning a dialogue was a great success, the dialogue itself would be very difficult.

Nikonov raised the issue of Ukraine, which was touched on briefly in the Putin press conference. Kosachev commented that the Ukrainians must be disappointed that Biden was not giving them a free ticket into NATO, and that the Minsk process was recognized as valid by the Americans (at least according to Putin and pro-Putin media).

Simes then introduced former State Department official and current Fox News commentator Chris Wighton.  Wighton (speaking in rather loud English dubbed over in Russian), behaved like a good little Quisling. He took only a few seconds to get around to his main point that Putin had gotten more out of the Summit. Biden was at the end of a very busy trip, but he did well too. Before the trip, Biden was saying very aggressive things about Ukraine and cybersecurity retaliation, but it seemed that some red lines had disappeared. The surprising thing was that the Summit did not fall apart. It was bad timing to put it at the end of such a long trip, where Biden would be saying many negative things about Russia. (Comment: Needless to say, my opinion of the quality of Fox commentators is once again confirmed).

“The Great Game” then paused so everyone could watch the first five minutes of President Biden’s press conference, and then cut away for more commentary.

Kosachev complained that American correspondents were less interested in what happened at the talks and more interested in trapping Putin with trick questions (this refers in particular to the question where ABC reporter Rachel Scott asked why all of Putin’s opponents seemed to die or go to prison – what was he afraid of?).

Earlier, Nikonov had advanced the rather astonishing idea that Russia was a more democratic state than the US. After a commercial break, the big board showed Putin’s outrageous “whataboutism” comparison of Russia’s human rights record (being careful not to mention Navalny by name) with the killing of George Floyd (whom he also did not name) and the entirely unrelated January 6 riots. Dmitriy Suslov, Deputy Director at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies, then piled on with the unsurprising opinion that Nikonov was correct and that the US was a much bigger violator of human rights. Guantanamo and CIA secret prisons came up, among other things.

Simes said that he would not be bothered by a continued exchange of contrary opinions between the Americans and Russians on human rights. As with Nixon and Kissinger, these subjects could be segregated from other questions. He noted, however, that Ambassador Michael McFaul had said that the US could walk and chew gum at the same time and take up human rights simultaneously with other questions. Kosachev said he would like to see no linkage, but he didn’t see this happening under Biden. At present, Congress had created a large number of linkages through sanctions (Magnitsky Act, etc.).

The group then listened to the latter part of President Biden’s press conference, where he talked about the importance of China, and the fact that Putin did not want a Cold War. Remchukov commented Biden wanted a meeting with Putin primarily because of concerns about China. No one wanted Russia to add its strength to that of China.

Nikonov concluded with one of his typical propaganda end pieces, noting that the United States continued to battle for global hegemony and was trying to drag its allies into a new Cold War, but that Putin had no illusions, as he said at his press conference, and because of this the world was a little safer today.

https://www.1tv.ru/shows/big-game/vypuski/bolshaya-igra-specialnyy-vypusk-ot-16-06-2021 


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