No. 012 Primorye Election Update: Friday, May 4, 2001 New Poll Puts Cherepkov in the Lead – Barely

  

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    No. 012

                                                    

                                                  U.S. Consulate General, Vladivostok

                                                                        May 4, 2001

Primorye Election Update: Friday, May 4, 2001

 

 

New Poll Puts Cherepkov in the Lead – Barely

A new public opinion poll taken by “Status,” a sociological research center, shows Ex-Mayor Viktor Cherepkov with a slight lead of 13.8 percent over Valentin Dubinin with 13.5 percent.  PRISCO Director Aleksandr Kirilichev got 10 percent, Communist Vladimir Grishukov 7.6 percent, and Gennadiy Apanasenko only 3.7 percent.  About 20 percent expressed opposition to all candidates, and about 25 percent said they had not yet made up their minds.  The remaining percentages were divided among the other nine candidates.  The poll also asked voters how they evaluated PolPred Pulikovskiy’s job performance.  About 24 percent said he was doing a good job, while over 47 percent said he was doing a bad or very bad job.  Vladivostok State University professor Shinkovskiy told us this morning that a new poll he was conducting would show slightly different numbers, with Dubinin at around 20 percent, Cherepkov at about 17 percent, and Apanasenko at around 10 percent, with the rest trailing. About 22 percent would be against all candidates, and, operating on the assumption that those against all would most likely not vote, Shinkovskiy expected that Dubinin and Cherepkov will make it into the second round, each with about 25-30 percent of the vote. Cherepkov would do well in Vladivostok, but badly in the countryside and Nakhodka. Dubinin would do the reverse.  Kirilichev would do well in Nakhodka, but badly elsewhere.  Grishukov would carry the “Red Cities” of Bol’shoy Kamen’ and Arsen’yev but do very poorly elsewhere. Apanasenko would do well in no region, and the remaining candidates would not be serious factors.

 

Tolstoshein Verdict Expected Today or Saturday

The Tolstoshein lawsuit was the number one story on the Primorye nightly news programs on Thursday night, and the conviction is growing among political analysts here that Tolstoshein might be re-instated as Acting Governor.  According to Shinkovskiy and others, Tolstoshein’s recent actions are a “play directed from the Ministry of Fisheries” in Moscow, whose objective is to bolster the position of Nazdratenko and his supporters for whatever strategy they may eventually adopt to regain power in Primorye.

 

 Dar’kin and Zhekov Eyeing Primorye Duma Speakership

Shinkovskiy noted that he thought candidates Dar’kin and Zhekov were in the gubernatorial race not because they hoped to win, but just to raise their profiles for the December Duma elections.  Zhekov wanted to retain the Speakership, and Dar’kin had his eye on the job as well. Shinkovskiy also noted that Dar’kin, who is a relatively young and quite personable politician, had considerable financial resources, which were not based solely on his business acumen as Chairman of the “Roliz” corporation.  Dar’kin got his start in the business world as the son-in-law of Kray Communist Party First Secretary Golovizin in the early 1990s.  Golovizin, using his party connections, amassed great wealth in the 1980s, and managed to pass a good bit of it on to his daughter, whose dowry included a very lucrative mink farm, among other things.

 

Pulikovskiy Sponsors a Political Round Table, While Nazdratenko Hovers Ominously

With his chosen candidate Apanasenko trailing the polls, PolPred Pulikovskiy has proposed that a “Round Table” of candidates be held on Saturday to come to an agreement on a basic platform that all can support.  Dubinin has already said he will not attend, but Apanasenko, Cherepkov, Kirilichev, and a few others have said they will.  The exact political advantage conferred by the Round Table process is a bit obscure.  The idea apparently was hatched by Apanasenko’s beleaguered campaign staff, which is headed by Yuriy Koshmarov.  

The most curious thing about the Round Table, however, is that ex-Governor Yevgeniy Nazdratenko reportedly will also attend.  Nazdratenko has recently been featured in TV spots for Apanasenko.  In these campaign ads, Nazdratenko says that the next Governor of Primorye should be someone who comes from Primorye but who is not associated with the previous (his) Administration.  Then, he goes on to note that Apanasenko is just such a person.  That said, however, the prevailing wisdom is that Nazdratenko is actually rooting for Cherepkov.  The theory goes that if Cherepkov wins the Governorship, he will be so weighed down with the problems inherited from the 1990s that he will be turned out of office in the 2005 elections – elections in which Nazdratenko himself plans to run.